LAS CRUCES, N.M. — When Democrats in New Mexico swept elections just two years ago, flipping the Republican-held congressional district that stretches across more than half the state ranked among their biggest wins.
But in a sign of how tenuous the Democrats’ hold is on some of the House seats they picked up in 2018, especially in districts President Trump carried four years ago, that prize is suddenly in play yet again.
The incumbent, Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, is now among the most vulnerable Democrats in Congress in a race that is drawing attention from leaders of both parties, and potentially huge amounts of spending, as Republicans eye an opening to blunt Democratic momentum in this part of the West.
Yvette Herrell, the Republican seeking to oust Ms. Torres Small, is stoking anger over a slump in the oil industry and measures taken by Democrats in New Mexico to fight the coronavirus pandemic. Shifting blame from President Trump for the pandemic’s economic fallout, Ms. Herrell has grown so critical of New Mexico’s virus mitigation policies that it sometimes seems as if she is running as much against the state’s Democratic governor as Ms. Torres Small.
“This is a razor-thin race we’re looking at if the Republicans energize their base, as they already did in the primary,” said Gabriel Sanchez, a pollster with Latino Decisions and executive director of the University of New Mexico’s Center for Social Policy.
As the Republican convention gets underway, some of the complications of politics in 2020 are playing out in New Mexico.
The cautious pandemic response by Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham has kept cases from exploding in a poor state that is home to large numbers of people with underlying conditions. New Mexico has had far fewer Covid-19-related deaths on a per-capita basis than neighboring Arizona, one of the first states to reopen in May.
Still, open defiance by sheriffs, business owners and many others of Ms. Lujan Grisham’s policies, which include a statewide mask mandate, can make parts of the district in southern New Mexico feel almost like a different state from Albuquerque and points northward, where many people are wearing masks.
The strategy of running hard to the right by avowing loyalty to Mr. Trump while blasting Democrats for problems associated with the pandemic could be working for Ms. Herrell, who lost the 2018 race by fewer than 4,000 votes.
A poll by the Tarrance Group for the Republican National Committee showed the candidates tied with each getting 46 percent and 8 percent of voters undecided. The poll, conducted in July in a survey of 400 voters, had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Democrats are still thought to have the upper hand in their battle to maintain control of the House, with various other races around the country leaning in the party’s direction. Still, the contest in New Mexico shows how easily that could change, even for candidates holding a significant cash advantage.
Ms. Torres Small has about $3.9 million in cash on hand (partly a result of robust fund-raising in 2018), dwarfing Ms. Herrell’s $379,000 and raising the possibility that outside groups could enter the fray to bolster the Republican’s campaign.
As the race tightens, it offers a glimpse into whether a Democrat can hold on to a relatively conservative district where Mr. Trump won by 10 points in 2016. The district is now the largest by area in the United States to be represented by a Democrat, stretching from suburban areas near Albuquerque to the border with Mexico.
Almost 50 percent of eligible voters in the district are Hispanic, a larger proportion than New Mexico’s two other congressional districts. Ms. Torres Small, a bilingual 35-year-old water rights lawyer whose grandmother emigrated from Mexico, is trying to appeal to those voters with ads in both Spanish and English.
The vast district includes Las Cruces, a Democratic-leaning city that is home to New Mexico State University, but also the counties that produce most of New Mexico’s oil, an area sometimes called “Little Texas,” where voters have been seething over a shift to the left in the state.
Ms. Torres Small, whose 2018 ads featured her grasping a hunting rifle, is now casting herself as a moderate Democrat who can reach consensus with Republicans and even defy Democratic leaders when necessary.
For instance, Ms. Torres Small pointed out in an interview that she fought for oil workers to get benefits as part of the CARES Act, the multi-billion-dollar stimulus law approved in March.
“When members of my own party tried to exclude oil and gas from relief in the CARES Act, I stood up against them and said, ‘No, everyone should be able to receive this relief,’” she said.
Still, with on-the-ground campaigning limited this year by social distancing measures aimed at curbing the spread of the coronavirus, Ms. Torres Small may face an uphill battle to persuade voters she is on the energy industry’s side.
In one sign of the skepticism she is encountering, Harry Teague, the only other Democrat to represent the district in the last 40 years, this month endorsed her opponent, Ms. Herrell.
“Yvette will never vote against New Mexico energy,” said Mr. Teague, the founder of an oil well servicing company who held the seat from 2009 to 2011.
In contrast to the bipartisan image cultivated by the incumbent, Ms. Herrell, 56, a citizen of the Cherokee Nation who was born and raised in southern New Mexico, is making it explicitly clear that she sides with Republicans on issues including oil production, abortion and support for President Trump.
While voicing criticism of Ms. Torres Small for voting for Mr. Trump’s impeachment, Ms. Herrell said in an interview that she is counting on a surge in Republican turnout to win the race.
The Coronavirus Outbreak ›
Frequently Asked Questions
Updated August 17, 2020
Why does standing six feet away from others help?
- The coronavirus spreads primarily through droplets from your mouth and nose, especially when you cough or sneeze. The C.D.C., one of the organizations using that measure, bases its recommendation of six feet on the idea that most large droplets that people expel when they cough or sneeze will fall to the ground within six feet. But six feet has never been a magic number that guarantees complete protection. Sneezes, for instance, can launch droplets a lot farther than six feet, according to a recent study. It’s a rule of thumb: You should be safest standing six feet apart outside, especially when it’s windy. But keep a mask on at all times, even when you think you’re far enough apart.
I have antibodies. Am I now immune?
- As of right now, that seems likely, for at least several months. There have been frightening accounts of people suffering what seems to be a second bout of Covid-19. But experts say these patients may have a drawn-out course of infection, with the virus taking a slow toll weeks to months after initial exposure. People infected with the coronavirus typically produce immune molecules called antibodies, which are protective proteins made in response to an infection. These antibodies may last in the body only two to three months, which may seem worrisome, but that’s perfectly normal after an acute infection subsides, said Dr. Michael Mina, an immunologist at Harvard University. It may be possible to get the coronavirus again, but it’s highly unlikely that it would be possible in a short window of time from initial infection or make people sicker the second time.
I’m a small-business owner. Can I get relief?
- The stimulus bills enacted in March offer help for the millions of American small businesses. Those eligible for aid are businesses and nonprofit organizations with fewer than 500 workers, including sole proprietorships, independent contractors and freelancers. Some larger companies in some industries are also eligible. The help being offered, which is being managed by the Small Business Administration, includes the Paycheck Protection Program and the Economic Injury Disaster Loan program. But lots of folks have not yet seen payouts. Even those who have received help are confused: The rules are draconian, and some are stuck sitting on money they don’t know how to use. Many small-business owners are getting less than they expected or not hearing anything at all.
What are my rights if I am worried about going back to work?
What is school going to look like in September?
- It is unlikely that many schools will return to a normal schedule this fall, requiring the grind of online learning, makeshift child care and stunted workdays to continue. California’s two largest public school districts — Los Angeles and San Diego — said on July 13, that instruction will be remote-only in the fall, citing concerns that surging coronavirus infections in their areas pose too dire a risk for students and teachers. Together, the two districts enroll some 825,000 students. They are the largest in the country so far to abandon plans for even a partial physical return to classrooms when they reopen in August. For other districts, the solution won’t be an all-or-nothing approach. Many systems, including the nation’s largest, New York City, are devising hybrid plans that involve spending some days in classrooms and other days online. There’s no national policy on this yet, so check with your municipal school system regularly to see what is happening in your community.
“I’m more in touch with what our voter values are,” Ms. Herrell said. “This is a very family-oriented district, very blue collar, pro-Second Amendment, pro-life, pro-free market.”
In New Mexico’s June primary, voter turnout climbed to about 40 percent of eligible voters, the highest level for a primary in the state since the early 1990s.
But in what could be a troubling sign for Democrats, the total number of Republican votes cast in the primary increased by more than 40 percent from 2016, while Democratic votes rose by about 5 percent, according to the New Mexico Secretary of State’s office.
Democrats say they are also counting on much higher turnout in the November election in anticipation of greater voting by mail by constituents hesitant to cast ballots in person during the pandemic.
In the meantime, Ms. Herrell and other Republicans are eyeing the political divisiveness around New Mexico’s response to the pandemic as an opening to build support for the party in the coveted district.
On a drive across the district in recent days, the contrast with other parts of New Mexico came sharply into focus. In towns like Artesia and Cloudcroft, few people had masks on. At convenience stores in Roswell, neither employees nor patrons wore masks.
At a Holiday Inn in Roswell, some guests congregated in the lobby without masks while about a dozen other unmasked guests met up in the parking lot for an impromptu party, knocking back beers as if the pandemic didn’t exist.
But even while New Mexico has managed to avoid the huge outbreaks seen in neighboring Texas and Arizona, Republicans in the state are using every chance they get to attack Democrats’ coronavirus measures during an election year in which social media strategies are eclipsing traditional face-to-face campaigning.
Steve Pearce, the chairman of New Mexico’s Republican Party and a former congressman who represented the district for a total of 14 years, said it made sense strategically to criticize the state’s pandemic response in a district where Republicans have to peel away Democratic votes to win.
“You’re looking for these wedges, and the business owners are a tremendous wedge, and then the people who work for these small business owners are tremendous wedges,” Mr. Pearce said.
Democrats, for their part, are defending the state’s pandemic measures while emphasizing that proclaiming loyalty to Mr. Trump, and voicing support for polarizing projects like his border wall, may not offer a path to victory in a heavily Latino district where many are skeptical of the administration’s treatment of people in the borderlands.
“Our district is small town New Mexico, as small town as it gets,” said Micaela Lara Cadena, a Democratic state legislator from Mesilla, a town of about 2,200 near Las Cruces. “But people don’t want to see blind loyalty to anybody or any office.”